Just in October last year, I was surprised to see my portfolio cross the SGD 1.3m threshold. Now, just half a year later, it has surpassed SGD 1.4m. I feel there is a bubble, but when will it pop?
May portfolio update
In May, my portfolio increased from SGD 1,384,573 to SGD 1,474,254. I invested just SGD 143, so the gain came from capital gains alone.
The bubble is real?
The increase in portfolio value is hard to believe. In May 2025, the portfolio was worth a whopping SGD 390k less. I am totally convinced that we are in a bubble. Once it pops, it will be brutal, but nobody knows when. The fact is, it cannot go on forever.
I cannot sell any stocks to rebalance into bonds, which would make sense in this situation, as I currently live in Germany where this would lead to a prohibitive tax bill, with gains being taxed at close to 30%.
Right now, my salary is small and I cannot save much. Whatever I can save, I will put into money market funds to increase my small cash buffer.
Current asset allocation
My portfolio allocation is nice and boring.
- 96% stock index funds
- One individual stock pick: Alibaba
- A small cash buffer
The first 100k is the hardest…
It took me around 2.5 years to save the first 100k. From there on, it became easier as compound interest started to take effect.
I nearly made it…?
This is the most important chart. The green line represents the hypothetical income I could draw from my portfolio, while the blue line shows my trailing twelve-month average expenses. The yellow dots mark my actual monthly spending.
There is just the tiniest gap between the lines now. I guess I am nearly financially independent. What a strange feeling…
Moving the goalposts?
I keep thinking about what to do now. Work and life are complicated, hmmm. I am nearing a future where I do not have to work for money anymore if I do not want to. In my mind, there are many scenarios and thoughts about safe withdrawal rates, the AI bubble, and so on, but overall, I feel it is all going to be great.
Hopefully, I can post about having reached financial independence soon!
I think your portfolio gain 14% for the year with minimal injection. Don’t think its a bubble. Mine was about 10% for the year. Perhaps your tilting more to Singapore and emerging markets helped since they are mainly ETFs. The emerging markets have grown a fair bit due to those AI related companies.
This may teach us a lesson when sectors expand, and then contract. i feel the lesson is learning about living with such volatility.
Your line is close and I have a curated view about 4% SWR. i think is quite safe because if you live out the high inflation period, the great depression period, 4% is conservative. If you follow my blog you can see that in action (plug in your numbers to my Gilgamesh SWR tool).
We don’t have to always have a view of preventing great depression and high inflation. It is good to know the income stream is conservative.
I like to ask people to look at their own spending as a few layers, those that are more essential that you die die want to make sure always are there, and those that you can truly be flexible about. It is always a good feeling if you can secure the essential with a very low SWR like 2.5% or below because its like perpetual (if you can’t visualize it when you come Singapore hit me up and i can take you through personally).
In this tracking you can always have a few different lines of spending just to give you the sensible how your different expenses do as you live a normal life.